81 Fantasyworld : Typhoon Taiyan Climate Change

58 similar strenght typhoons since 1950 ..er that means Haiyan is not spedcial. There is on average one every year.

Haiyan Typhoon, Disaster Porn and selling Climate Change

- Paul put a lot of work put in. But you should really explain that that change of mind about Category 4. It''s always OK to admit errors and this really was an exceptional circumstance to be able to say PAGASA 10min average speed of 147mph making it a Category 4, can reasonabley be guessed as being 167mph on 1min average so making it a Category 5.

- But as regards those 195mph and 235mph gust speed : Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. So I think we can't assume that the 195mph peak lantfall speed estimate by JTWC can be called fact. Also note that JTWC estimate is for less than 3 hours before landfall , it would be different if it had given an estimate for similar speeds 6 or 13 hours earlier.

I note 1 . that the Wikipedia page NOW has a large section about climate change COP19 etc and has also been locked. They no longer make claims about the biggest ever ..now calling it one of the biggest.

I believe the way it's written is misleading claiming the the 195mph as landfall speed, but only citing Weatherunderground as a source. Similar weak links etc. And the Talk seems to be full of people desperate to get the climate change spin angle put in.

- Bottom line there was a storm in the Philippines the media went into default exagerration mode pickingon the most extreme estimates and quoting them as facts as the same time the global warming alarmists took the opportunity to push the climate change agenda. It was certainly not the biggest storm nor part of a provable cycle. Anything could happen in the future, but Ph has had storms like this in the past and will in the future

2 sets of speeds

- all speeds are from guesses not instruments)
PAGASA 275Kmh gusts 235Kmh wind, but stranglely they report av ovwer 10 mins so will always be lower,
- JTWC guessed from satellite images : 195mph and 235mph gust speed

My notes on Haiyan windspeed

..it seems there is no official record, no one had instrument measurements. Guesses were made and that it was towards the high end..still can't find confirmation of where the 235miles per hour number came from. We got it from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said Guardian but it seems that data is not visible now on JTWC page. The PAGASA pages archived on WUWT say 235kph

I find 2 scientific sources From NASA : Assessing Haiyan’s Winds
Their Scatterometer radar said 206Kmh but doesn't catch the top speed so they estimate 240Kmh

According to the Oceansat-2 data, which was processed by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) using an experimental technique, the storm’s winds peaked at 206 kilometers (128 miles) per hour at the time of measurement—strong enough to devastate the landscape.
“The bottom line is that meteorologists are going to be debating what Haiyan’s top wind speeds were for some time,” said Jeffrey Halverson, a meteorologist at the University of Maryland at Baltimore County. “The best we can do is point to the strengths and shortcomings of each piece of technology or technique that we use to estimate winds—be it Dvorak, a scatterometer, or a barometer. Since we lack reliable in situ measurement for Haiyan, we have to use wide error bars.”

- (There maybe also question of what defines landfall ..the first rock, little island or the actual mainland)

UK Met Office blog

At the time of landfall the estimated central pressure of the typhoon was 895 mb and sustained winds averaged over one minute estimated at 195 mph with higher gusts. These estimates are based on well attested satellite techniques, but without observations exactly in the path of the eye of the typhoon it is impossible to confirm their accuracy. However, this is likely to make Haiyan one of the most intense tropical cyclones to make landfall in history. ..it then went on to discuss others with lower pressure & higher speeds
PAGASA-DOST ‏@dost_pagasa 7 Nov Hourly Update: #YolandaPH (5AM November 8, 2013) Typhoon “YOLANDA” has made landfall over Guiuan, Eastern Samar (4:40AM)
from PAGASAs Facebook 2nd landfall 235kph 275kph gusts Good map of the track Daily Forecast 52Km before FIRST landfall 235kph 275kph gusts

Haiyan being WRONGLY hyped up by dramagreens

- Big news on Haiyan being hyped up by dramagreens
good tweet : Over past 1,000 years, Philippines have been hit by 10-20 thousand tropical cyclones. Don't be so arrogant to believe man caused Haiyan.
another warns how media will hype the story

- typhoon expert Ryan Maue points us to official list of WN Pacific cyclones Haiyan is not the worst ever, but is in the top 58 in last 60 years (from 1950) lower the pressure minimum the stronger; Haiyan at min pressure 895hPa .. 23 in list are at 900.. I would guess that the margin of error could mean Haiyan can't be distinguished from a 900hPa. Important that although strenghth is indicated by low pressure WUWT explains it depends on the concentration of the eye as well e.g. Camille had a 905 hPa but was stronger. Seems we can't rank Haiyan other than say it's not the top, but in the top 100 or 500

- Since that is one region out of many I GUESS that far from Haiyan being the strongest ever it's more like it's in the middle of the top 1000 in the world for last 60 years. (is that the strongest area ?)

- Global warming advocates admitted that they need more disasters to spur policy change. Here's such an editorial: a-few-more-storms-like-typhoon-haiyan-may-finally-make-our-leaders-act-on-climate-change/2013/11/15

-ah John Thorpe 18th November put in official complaint to BBC about the hype

Media naturally spin towards negative hype

Way to go German Media ! In Wake Of Haiyan: redefine “Climate Apocalypse” to kills 2500 people

study: Climate science bullshit is accelerating at an "unprecedented rate"

- About Haiyan Top DramaGreen Justin Forsyth £163K/yrCEO of Save the Children said "storms increased both in number & intensity due to CO2 !"
- come on no evidence cited "tell a lie often enough rule"

- Yes BBC Newsnight put the issue to bed last night ..then at 6.35am this morning the breakfast numpty on BBC Radio Lincolnshire was off making the most of errors to play the issue up "235mph winds yes 235 miles an hour winds, bigger than tsunami (what that killed 200,000 ?) is it connected to Climate Change ? that's what people are asking at the IPCC meeting in Warsaw " cuts to crying clip of Phiilippine delelegate at Warsaw...

- and someone tweeting as JonSnow Channel 4 newsgot up very early & angrily sent 20 tweets against deniers " The intensity of these tropical storms IS rising with the temperature of the sea: deny that and we head for extinction"

Grubby Reporting

BBC journalist just now ...people lining up for food "these people are starving, have you guys eaten today" children replied "yes", you could hear the disappointment in the reporters voice. There is something grubby about the disaster porn the media feed us. Not to say that there are people like dialysis patients that have urgent problems.

..And what's this about "send money now ?" Do they really need money ? This country is not so different from here it have a population of 100m ands an army and navy etc ...They used to have American bases right there, but said they prefereered to stand on their own feet and kicked the Americans out. BBC rep "The head of the Philippines delegation at UN climate talks in Poland has said he will stop eating until participants make "meaningful" progress."
- My rule is you never give in to terrorists, but you talk to everyone. No one has the right to manipulate and bully you into decisions which should be based on logic.

If only we invested in motivating govs to prepare for real disasters instead of wind farms against fake disasters
- Spectator : global-warming-isnt-to-blame-for-the-disaster-in-the-philippines
- benny-peiser-global-warming-blamed-disaster-philippines

Very Good example of how clueless dramagreens are

- The full video of journalist Mark Hertsgaard (The Nation magazine) shouting down Roy Spencer on CNN ..Transcript by Alex Cull
"97% of scientists say this typhoon is down to man made climate change It is journalistic malpractice to letc a CLIMATE DENIER on" (featuring a 45s platitude from Climate Scientist - George Cloony * "If it were 99% of doctors I'd trust them") surprisingly Piers Morgan's ending words were "and I think it's journalistic malpractice Mr Hertsgaard not to let people have a fair debate"

* George Cloony (Climate Loony) was on twitter today complaining : Get it fixed Tesla I keep getting stuck by the side of the highway

- journalist Mark Hertsgaard top DramaGreening boohoo that Piers Morgan told you it's journalistic malpractice malpractice to SHOUT PEOPLE DOWN
- Roy Spencer's page
- also on the dramaGreensPage 73

Typhoon Haiyan #ClimateChange wake up call ! Green DramaQueening causes many wind turbines in the UK & not enough huricane shelters in the Philippines

Very Good example of how clueless dramagreens are

perfect opportunity to ask if people are sick of DramaGreens latching on to single weather events to sell their Green dogma whilst ignoring other downward trends

Latest Situational Report every 12 hours can be found here http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council The casualty count this 7am 11/11/2013 was 255

(On Sunday the BBC websites said around 10,000 whereas their TV reports implied much more "The death count for Tacloban City is ,,, 10,000")

(A UK gov minister just said that Yolanda is worse than the Tsunami ! well that was around 200,000 deaths)

- WUWT is not being malicious by questioning questionable figures cos TRUTH matters. When a high figure comes in a logical person would immediately question whether a mistake like reading Kph as mph had happened, as once a meme is established it's difficult to put the genie back in the bottle. The fact that is the mistake BBC's Matt McGrath made in writing of the news report doesn't say much for the BBC's credibility. The fact that Greg Laden insults people who pick up that kind of error shows what respect eh has for the truth

http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph The sit rep climbed 1200 between this morning and tonight (Ph time) Nov22nd Now 5,209 dead about 1,600 missing 1 million houses effected, half of which were destroyed * 1,200 within 1 day : I am inclined the think factors effecting are 1. People dying after typhoon, who might well have died anyway (old age, pre-existing illness etc.) are probably been added (possibly cos worse casualty generates higher foreign donations) 2. Local political pressure may be to talk to the deaths down, to make local politicians lookong incomptetent in preparations.

- We heard a many times from the BBC that the death toll was over 10,000

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a Stew Green opinion
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- from someone who was never in the box in the first place
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