49 Headlines, much bigger than the story. 400ppm, & "Ice Free" 10/5/2013
- The Reality Check Blog
Headlines, much bigger than the story.
: CO2 Now over 400ppm !
: Arctic Ice Free NOW !

- GreenTeam journalists have already got these stories in the computers. ready to press send. (They will of course be illustrated by steam coming off cooling towers & cute polar bears)

- CO2 is near 400ppm at the beginning of May, "so that means continue up, maybe 405ppm in June etc." Err NO.. when you check the graph you see that CO2 reaches a peak at the beginning of May each year (almost always an increase on the previous year), but then it drops down. (actually the daily average number seemed to peak last week so it may not cross 400 until next year.
... and anyway daily averages don't count "Day-to-day numbers can fluctuate due to variations in the air masses moving over Hawaii. That’s why researchers look at monthly averages which tend to smooth out these synoptic events")
.. the
2 year graph

I see the Guardian Already jumped the gun http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/apr/29/global-carbon-dioxide-levels
- and Joe Romm on Think Progress http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/04/24/1911821/keeling-curve-website-co2-levels-hit-400-parts-per-million/?mobile=nc

- OK what about those predictions "Arctic will be Ice Free by X year". (One BBC prediction is 2013) "So that means that there will be no ice in the Artic ocean and you'll easily be able to sail from Scotland to cross the North Pole... and that's it after then there'll be no more ice in the Artic as the world get's warmer and warmer"
..Err NO 2 big problems there.
1. "Ice Free", doesn't mean "Ice Free", It's is a technical term meaning ice down to less than 1 million square Km from annual peak or about 15m SqKm
2. The predicitions don't apply to the whole year, but rather the moment at the middle of September when the years accumulated heat makes an ice minimum.
- Activists who believe the meme "Artic is melting" think that since there has been a downward trend coverage gets less and less each year. However it seems it has low years then recovers, but these pessimists never predicted any recoveries hence their way off forecasts.
(The arctic-roos.org graph shows 2012 was a recent low of 3m sqKm, which is about half the 27 year average, it was low also in 2007, but other recent years were all above 4m sqKm)
... The Met-Office has recently changed their forecast from 2020 to 2060-80

References : The keeling Curve shows the pattern of CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory
: Daily Twitter update
: The WUWT sea-ice reference-page

Strange After Story
- The BBC suddenly reported last Friday that the reading had crossed 400 on Thursday . That was strange to me cos I knew The Thursday reading for Scripps/Keeling was below 400 - So I went back to the twitter feed they had renamed it with an article saying that the reading was over 400 , but according to the Scripp's measurement using the same instrument, but reporting in a different timezone. so I checked their webpage, but it also was below 400 ..Turns out after the big press release the reading had been corrected downwards NOAA reading from same instruments
- May 13th 400.07 ..this too was later adjusted downward
- but now they report May 14 as the first day EVER over 400 at 400.03
- oops I blinked ..yes it has been re-adjusted downwards so CO2 has STILL NOT crossed the 400ppm line
NOAA Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
May 15 – 399.59 May 14 – 399.97 May 13 – 399.98 May 12 – 399.48 May 11 – 399.45
notice how the official page says PRELIMINARY
Scripps/Keeling Twitterfeed also all below 400ppm

- Finally Scripps/Keeling has an official reading readjusted to above 400

- So CAN YOU CONFIRM : after all he corrections The May13th 2013 Keeling/Scripps reading is the first ever official daily average above 400ppm from the Mauna Loa from either of the two bodies Keeling/Scripps or NOAA (cos the previous NOAA readings were all downgraded to below 400ppm) ? http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/special-note-on-may-13-2013-reading/ Reply Robert Monroe says: May 17, 2013 at 9:35 am Yes

Then they changed their minds - saying that the May 9th reading stands even though it preliminary ..daft cos we know it's already been down graded

For the record – I note you first answered Yes and then after a few days replaced it with your last answer. - I also note that the NOAA website showed the May 9th figure was adjusted downwards and this was reported in the LA Times “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its May 9 reading at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, saying it remained fractions of a point below the level of 400 ppm, at 399.89? - yes I see now for 3 days your PRELIMINARY Twitter figures crossed 400ppm (the late May13th reading, 16th & 17th)

Ice Free Forecasts a few coming up this year

- LONGER list : GOOD ref page from WUWTmade fom readers input
- Below a shorter a list I made from Steve Goddard’s list
2000 New Scientist in 1960
2000 AP in 1972
2008 Olav Orheim, the head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat in 2008 ! yes
2010-2015 Articnet Canada in 2007
2012 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally
2012 Seth Borenstein in Washington Associated Press &N Geographic December 12, 2007
2013 Jonathan Amos Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco in 2007
2013-2019 Richard Black BBC News 2011 WOLF WOLF says BBC
2013 niagarafallsreview.ca in 2011 they removed it now
2014-2016 Al Gore December 15, 2009
2015 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report in 2009
2020 UK Met office old forecast, updated to 2060-80 their 2009 forecast
2030 Joe Rommm quoting NSIDC Serreze in 2011
- some claims it’s partially due to a strange definition : when the Arctic sea-ice extent in September is below 1 million sq km (“ice free”).
- It seems it has low years then recovers, but pessimists never predicted any recoveries hence their way off forecasts

Pine Dust Effecting Climate

- When I was in Girne North Cyprus some days were overcast and cooler than expected , due to what I thought was dust in the clouds from the Sahara, but then in Troodos mountains I observed there were huge clouds of pine dust coming off the trees...surely this would effect the climate ? but I never heard anyone talk about it .. I just saw a new post on WUWT about a kind of smog that comes of trees

Useful info someone put on WUWT
statistics ≠ science
modeling ≠ experiment
distorted data ≠ truth
unfalsifiable hypotheses ≠ science
unreproducible results ≠ science
faulty logic ≠ science
If Everything is due to Climate Change, it's a pseudoscience

"While, a science is not genuine if whatever happens, it is always right. If a so-called science is such that it can explain anything you want, then I said it was a pseudo-science."
..Karl Popper, founder of modern scientific reasoning

- Remember that when someone says hot day/flooding/cold day/ decreased ice/ Antartic increased ice EQUALS climate change

- where did I hear that quote : Actually the ABC "Science Show" cheerleaders in chief for propaganda about "Climate Catastrophe is certain".... check the transcript while it is still there

- He was speaking how science works by defining what would DISPROVE your hypothesis and then you set out to break your own hypothesis, you look to REFUTE rather than confirmations and that is why criticsm is a vital part of science.

- He preceded the above quote : "that what is characteristic of genuine science is that it can be refuted by experience. That is to say, that something like this is conceivable which would refute it "

- Before 1900 scientists used to set out to prove their theories. Put popper points out that doesn't work you can only prove in NEGATIVES not positives.
e.g. hypotheisis : "swans are always white" , which was true until we found black swans in Australia. so the hypothesis moved on.

- You can't say "it works in all circumstances"; you set out to find which ones it doesn't work.

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a Stew Green opinion
Out of the box thinking
- from someone who was never in the box in the first place
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