Scratchbox

Scratch Box of Stories Under Construction

- OK to say too complex for public to understand, but no need to lie

NO we don't need regulation if the greens are right then they'll convince people to give up their cars.

- If one common pattern is that CO2 rise lags 600 years after temperature rise (even Gore's film shows this) then wouldn't CO2 increase 600 years after the medieval warm period ? Galileo + Shakespeare both say - God gave us the ability to reason so we aren't expect to switch it off.

from NPR debate ? Good point is science about consensus anyway it's about being right

If King Canute can't control climate how can we. We can effect it a little, but Can we manage climate PREDICTABLY by controlling one factor ? He say absolutely No

- I think it is OK to say "too complex for public to understand" which is what the alarmist Gavin Schmitt said and got boos for

What's the Real question ?
Pseudo - Questions -
Is it getting hotter every year ? over last 8 no, but over long term yes (but it's not an easy thing to measure)

is the Climate changing ? yep always Does
is the Climate changing more than normal ? what's normal ?
Is any of the 0.6 C rise due to man ? maybe
If we don't reduce CO2 emissions will there be a Catastrophe ? maybe yes maybe no
What is a Catastrophe ? "Big Flooding, big big climate change.
What will happen if there is a Catastrophe ? who knows Planet won't die. Worst thing is warming, the ice will melt we'll have more houses flooded and we'll have to adapt and we'll have time to adapt. They used to say more malaria, but they have changed their minds.

Maybe - Are we fucked if we don't stop sending up CO2 ?
who knows, remember the theory is it's like the 2nd coat of whitewash on a window.

Actions Governments could do if they believed

Once a government has decided on a line it should decide on actions. More research, agreements with other governments etc. If it wants to reduce CO2 it has decide how. Even skeptics cannot oppose some reduction in CO2, if it's a case of avoiding waste then it can cost zero or save the economy money. So lagging pipes etc is good such measures will make the economy more efficient. It's measures which cost businesses or individuals money over the long term that is concerning.

Put a bit of money into solar, windpower etc it's all good for research, though they secretly know they'll never be very efficient in most circumstances. (The German government puts a hell of a lot of money into solar research, not cos Germany will stop using oil, but because it hopes to make a lot of money manufacturing solar panels for sunny countries.)

Likewise governments can play around with carbon-trading.

Higher fuel taxes seem attractive, but unfortunately in practice people are irrational they still drive their cars and turn up the heating.
- Produce a car with 20% fewer emissions and not only will people buy it and ignore the energy used in production, but they'll feel so smug they'll drive it 20% further.

- And when governments try to micromanage people it becomes an inefficient mess.

- Set a a target for 50 years time, well fuck me that's brave ! and easy.

- They say the west pollutes so it needs to cut, so what's easier to get millions of westerners out of their high carbon lifestyle or to stop billions of developing world getting into it ? What makes sense 1. mothballing a functioning efficient coal fired power station in the UK and replacing it with loads of wind turbines and an energy storage system or 2. saying to the Chinese/Indians you know those 30 plants you are going to build in the next 6 months we'll give you some extra cash to build nuclear instead ?
And as Stott says the UK only accounts for 2% falling to 1% of world CO2 emissions what we do makes bugger all difference, but if we can stop China and India getting into our the bad habits well that's a market 30 times bigger. Anyway I have already said the UK government doesn't believe in CO2 reduction strongly enough yet to spend any real money on it.

If I have a 1000 quid I can spend it on driving and manufactured goods which will generate lots of CO2, or I could blow the lot on piano lessons and internet porn generating no CO2. If governments want to reduce spending on carbon they have to incentivise people to spend their cash on services (like paying me to write this). Maybe remove taxes on services. If increasing taxes on one thing doesn't change habits maybe reducing taxes on something else will. They should convince the Chinese and Indians to buy services with their cash and not things and I'm not talking about setting fire to stuff at temples.

I still think, changes in planning and getting people to live near their jobs would reduce travel, a 10 hour working day maybe ?

Scary People Page : scarer bad predictions page index -wrong number page : Princess Diana mentality in the press

Why western countries should be able to pollute 2 or 3 times more. Of course the western countries have higher per head consumption as they have restricted population. It's unfair of a father to claim a bigger salary just cos he chose to have 10 kids. America is much bigger than China. One way Americans could lower per capita emissions is to have 10 children each.


summary of IPCC report, something weird is happening with atmospheric CO2 levels, wow the levels are really high, we don't know why, We haven't got a clue what the effect could be nothing else has much changed really (global temp is a red herring), When something goes weird there is a possibility of catastrophe so give the public some scare stories so that if anything does happen they will go along with quick action. Maybe the 380ppm level of Atmospheric CO2 makes no difference, but if 600 would be even more weird, so if you did need to do something quickly about it then it's easier to begin at 500 than 599. One thing that surely creates CO2 without taking any in it's humans so get the humans to release CO2 at a less rate of increase, and maybe less altogether in the long run

Why make a Big Lie ?
- The science is beyond the public so you have to make it simple for them. This can't really be done, so you have to lie. The government lies, but that doesn't mean's it's evil, it believes it's doing it for the right reasons. There might not in the long term be a problem, but if there is you have to have the public warmed up, otherwise it's like trying to turn an oil tanker around

The public might increase energy efficiency as well, but they don't get he just don't consume so much message. Whole economy is based on cosume more.

from : SUPPORT FOR CALL FOR REVIEW OF UN IPCC

1. No average temperature of any part of the earth's surface, over any period, has ever been made.

How can you derive a "global average" when you do not even have a single "local" average?

What they actually use is the procedure used from 1850, which is to make one measurement a day at the weather station from a maximum/minimum thermometer. The mean of these two is taken to be the average. No statistician could agree that a plausible average can be obtained this way. The potential bias is more than the claimed "global warming.

2. The sample is grossly unrepresentative of the earth's surface, mostly near to towns. No statistician could accept an "average" based on such a poor sample. It cannot possibly be "corrected"

It is of interest that frantic efforts to "correct" for these uncorrectable errors have produced mean temperature records for the USA and China which show no overall "warming" at all. If they were able to "correct" the rest, the same result is likely

New Invention - Ecoheat bulb - uses new carbon tungsten technology to give heat aswell as light.

Forcefeed CO2 to plants ? swamp bacteria ? Put factories in the forest.

double glazing which lasts 15 years

Saying you are saving the planet by building big dams etc which of corse harm the local ecology

Temp idea stupid

Surely when you such a large set of data the margin of error should be big ? Gray rubbishes the whole science quite logically. You can say in an ice age the Earth's average temp is lower that's about it. Other times an average is as useful as the average number in the telephone book. Look you could collect data and calculate the average noise on the earth. Collect enough data and you could plot it on a graph. It won't be the same it will always between 2 points, but sometime it will seem like there is a trend going up other times it will seem like a trend going own, other times it will be going up and down. Ask people for a random number between 1-1000

But for the media questioning "pseudo-green" buzz is like criticising Communism when you were a Pravda reporter

I would be happy if we all had a Carbon Footprint a 30th of Gore, but he's still nuts
- Scientists say I don't know
-Yes be good to the environment

plenty of food resources in the world it's the distribution that's the problem.


- is there power in diamonds

that announcer on end of In Business pod has a great voice good slow pace very clear

How am I supposed to believe Global Warming stories when everytime I hear a story, which I know something about it sounds really scary and then checks out to have a basis of truth, but to have grown huge legs in the telling ?

Dr Karl - Science god, but ungreen Greenie - He's always banging on about his solar panels, but on the BBC he's not allow d to mention politics, so it wasn't until the Skepticality Special on him that I realised in his failed dismal election bid he'd been standing for the Climate Change Alliance. - He's a petrol head and a big consumer, new contruction etc. But like most people his maths his terrible. Building a huge great water tank may seem green, but it's a massive energy and resource waste compared to cutting consumption.

Karl makes 1.5 times his use which is very large 18KWh per day
- his panels cost an average persons wage this might be ?5,000 over 20 years
- this is ?50 a year so hs own electricity use X KWh costs ?00 a year
- My guess is from the grid X KWh costs much less than ?00 a year
- If the 18KWh per day is true that's 6570 KWh/year @2.2pKWh coal generating cost thatís ?45/year. If he has normal consumption of 4300 KWh/year generating cost is 94 quid so nowhere near breaking even. Bear in mind retail cost includes cost of the network which he uses when theirs no sun and to sell electricity when there is excess.

The thing is Karl is always going on about his love of cars and the new construction at his house --- so he's wasting lots of CO2.

- Karl solar $30K salary 0.5K electricity bill borrow : 30K 29.5K left to spend yr 1 30K pay 1.5K back $28.5K left to spend on other stuff.

- It would actually be a big problem if renewables saved you money as people would just spend the money which of course would generate more CO2
- 1. Their message is Climate Catastrophe is certain
- 2. They whine continually, and give you another story which proves that Climate, change is real. But every single time I go deeper and check the background the facts and maths don't stack up.
- 3. On the solution side : Their solutions are truly pathetic Seems they are always staring at the wallpaper trying to find the image of Global warming -

On analysis the scare stories don't checkout

solar on BBC Radio 4 Material World ?8,000 5KW 40 sqm claims 10 years to recover the cost crap as our bill is not ?,800 per year. I guess he is including an allowance for 80% of electricity being sold back to the grid.

22 December 2006 best and worst of 2006

checked Sci-Fri articles back as far as 27th July

- NpR Sci- Fri why's it plug organics (maybe for advertising ?)

has a 2007 article saying CO2 Rising Even faster it then has a graph ending in 2004 which shows emissions but not CO2 in air levels and shows China's emmisssions are 50% higher than the USA's http://www.sciencefriday.com/newsbriefs/read/116 - both ?? used emotive words like "dire"

which magazine ? I think AAAS Science

- Climate rationalists

- Good to see some talk about practical solutions like carbon capture etc instead of endless whinging CORAL - Iron Sulphate seeding near coral to reduce local CO2 Iron Sulphate is acidic so would make ocean more acidic ? CO2 ends up as bicarbonate is this alkali ?

- muggles learn then seem brainwashed to be stupid forget maths and logic. -why is public so badly served by the media ? there no free get out jail cards change your lifestyle

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