- from his book called The Drunkhard's walk
- Again stop thinking everything is linear - many times random factor apply
- Probability Randomness only works for large data sets. You can't judge by small samples
,but we apply it wrongly all the time
- e.g. We judge people by their success, but it's not a large enough sample, purely by chance many people can have 3 good years in a row.
- In all fields we raise people highly when their skill is the same as other people, it's just we attribute skills to people based on past success or expectation, but this is the same as expecting $50 wine to taste better than $10.
We say Bruce Willis is a good actor, but there are plenty of equally skilled actors who didn't have the same lucky breaks.
- Wine experts were unable to tell the difference when they were given white wine dyed red.
- Expectation drives pleasure - in Brain scanners pleasure areas lit up more when partipants were given the same wine marked at as higher price. Likewise this expectation clouds our judgement
Mistakes of Intuition.
- Fund manager had 15 winning years in a row. Wow amazing ! .. No ! Over 40 years purely by chance 25% of managers should have 15 winning years.
- Fluctuation plays an important part in small samples.
- Illusion of Control Human brain thinks it can control random things, we die younger if we don't maintain this illusion. We think we get better at guessing coin tosses with practice.
- If you want to be more successful then double your failure rate. Bill Gates had a lot of lucky breaks.
- Book On Amazon,